“The Path of Bitcoin: Trends and Market Predictions for 2024”

Commentary by: Daisuke Kobayashi, Chief Analyst at 10x Research Japan and Executive at xWIN Group

In this week’s analysis by Mr. Daisuke Kobayashi, it is pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is influenced by several factors. A key point is whether Bitcoin can surpass its previous high of $68,330. If it exceeds this level, a new bullish cycle may begin, potentially leading to a price increase. However, if it does not surpass this level, the price may remain flat or even drop sharply.

After the 2024 halving, significant movements are expected, but a sustainable narrative is necessary for this to happen. While acknowledging the unpredictability of the market, quantitative analysis based on Elliott Waves and flag breakouts suggests a potential rise to $81,000. Nevertheless, the market trends heavily depend on the actions of the participants.

On the other hand, a scenario where the price falls to the $50,000 range is considered more likely. The reasons for this outlook include:
1. There is currently no clear material to drive the price up.
2. The demand for Bitcoin futures has decreased.
3. Miners may be looking to realize profits due to a decrease in mining rewards.
4. The global economic slowdown is affecting the market.

Based on these analyses, the price of Bitcoin is likely to continue to experience significant fluctuations. Monitoring market trends remains crucial.

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